This presentation will focus on the hail threat in Canada – a threat that may well increase in the future due to a changing climate.
There are basically three messages that result from this study. The first is that hail climatologies are not constant, but vary over time due to shifting climate patterns, and most importantly in the future, climate change. The second message is that hailstorm disasters follow the typical fat-tailed distributions of other disaster data sets, which means that the rare high-consequence events are particularly important to cumulative hail damages. The third is that traditional hail data sets are degraded. Future analyses will have to rely upon radar and satellite-based observations. This means that updating climatologies will become increasingly difficult, expensive and complicated.
Speaker: David Etkin, Disaster and Emergency Management Group
After working for Environment Canada for 28 years, David Etkin joined the Disaster and Emergency Management Group at York University in 2005. He has contributed to several national and international natural hazard projects including the 2nd U.S. national assessment of natural hazards, the IPCC, was Principal Investigator of the Canadian National Assessment of Natural Hazards and is Past President of the Canadian Risk and Hazards Network. He has over 80 publications including a textbook on disaster theory and 6 edited volumes.