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CFASO Webinar - The EM/Oil Tango: Can They Decouple?
EM assets have typically outperformed their developed market counterparts when commodity prices, especially oil, are strong, and vice versa.

Is this still the case? With Asian economies emerging from coronavirus lockdowns much earlier than the rest, can EM assets now outperform even while real oil prices languish at historical lows?

• EM equities have limited direct or indirect oil content, and EM benchmarks are dominated by countries who are significant oil importers, i.e. beneficiaries of cheap oil.
• EM debt, especially hard currency-denominated debt is dominated by oil. Petro-credits are extremely vulnerable with contagion effects difficult to predict.
• The most liquid EM currency pairs are in oil-importing economies, but the primary driver here is global liquidity, risk appetite and the U.S. dollar.

Oct 15, 2020 12:00 PM in Eastern Time (US and Canada)

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Mehran Nakhjavani
Head of Emerging Market & Commodity Strategy and Partner @MRB Partners
Mehran Nakhjavani, Head of Emerging Market & Commodity Strategy and Partner at MRB Partners, brings extensive buy-side experience running EM and global equity portfolios. Since the birth of the EM asset class in the early 1990s, Mr. Nakhjavani has written EM strategy, with hands-on experience of all EM crashes and booms that have occurred since then. An OPEC-watcher since the 1980s, very familiar with the main Middle Eastern players and deep knowledge of the oil business.