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Title 24 2022 Update - Shared screen with speaker view
Panama Bartholomy
Welcome Everyone, we will start at 12:30 PT
Sean Armstrong
My understanding is that for political success, we should focus on all-electric + PV on non-single family building types: all the 4+ story multifamily, commercial buildings, schools, etc. Who would consent to that final proposal from us?
Sean Armstrong
Whom among us, I mean. :)
Sean Armstrong
I think it’s fine that we not increase stringency of single family, but we should require it to be all-electric. Same efficiency standard, no gas.
Sean Armstrong
It’s the lower efficiency of what is modeled for all-electric that is usually the problem, not the “low cost” of gas. The CEC models Federal Minimums in the Standards, not real world products that use half as much energy.
Panama Bartholomy
Great Job, Rachel!
Sean Armstrong
It’s the daily change for electricity that punishes it, reflecting occasional high grid costs, while the gas spikes during the winter are strangely invisible in TDV. Ignored, even though the real world has huge variation, daily, in the value of gas in the winter during gas stress periods (e.g. Polar Vortexes, gas pipeline explosions 5 out of 7 days a year).
Sean Armstrong
Note that this Source Energy Multiplier reflects electric resistance, not heat pumps. This is important-it’s be all green with heat pumps.
Panama Bartholomy
Great job, Ted!
Karen Kristiansson
Is this building electrification scenario for all homes, or for new homes only?
Ted Tiffany
Sean, just to clarify the source energy metric does not reflect "electric resistance" it reflects a kWh used at that time of the hour whether it be strip heating or an efficient heat pump
Panama Bartholomy
No leaks and carbon neutrality? Is RNG magic?
Ted Tiffany
When you put a "0" GWP on the RNG it isn't accounted for in the leakage impact in the equation but in reality it's still leaking and has a real GWP
Sean Armstrong
The coloration of the graph, showing red and orange, DOES reflect electric resistance. Martha Brook, at my request, has created that graph assuming a heat pump. It is bright green. She presented it at the on-line Zero Carbon Retreat, viewable at minute 52: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPeYJ_tT1LE&t=1015s I have the slides.
Ted Tiffany
Sean, that's a whole other chart which is relative to natural gas heat map charts and you're right on that particular chart from Martha. This is the heat map for the long range source energy metric
Sean Armstrong
OK, my bad, thanks for clarifying. It’s worth repeating—every hour of the day, a heat pump looks better than burning gas on-site. Resistance is bad, heat pumps are good, and better than gas year round.
Tom Kabat
It appears the CEC is not recognizing risk differences between counting on magic RNG and then it not arriving to fuel the equipment they allowed.
scott shell
Thanks for all this great analysis.
Chris Tholstrup
Why are things so skewed to support RNG? Is that just the last gasp from the fossil fuel industry? At some point it is going to be illegal to burn things on Earth. No?
Alice Sung
maybe Sean could elaborate on his first question posed to us? what was meant by "proposing all electric with PV " that included schools?
Tom Kabat
Can the CEC do the cost effectiveness study for additions and remodels that are unable to avoid the cost of gas hookups like new buildings can?
Dan Suyeyasu
Biofuel assumptions: much to ponder there, but I would guess that any increase in biofuel is driving an increase in $/therm in the E3 model. Consistent with other presentations by E3 and their expectations for high RNG prices. A snippet from Snuller’s 10/17 presentation says: “ . . .has biofuel and H2 costs”. This may well mean that the higher the biofuel percentage, the more TDV favors electrification. Would have to see the E3 spreadsheets to discern that.
Alice Sung
what about including rewards (or mandates ) for schools to include battery storage with its PV that is optimized?
Sean Armstrong
If single family is off-limits, then we have been given a green light to require dramatic changes to everything else.
scott shell
It all looks too timid and too slow. Is there another path either thru the CEC or legislature or other that phases out gas in new buildings earlier? the local approval of reach codes show there is appetite for this in many places due to the fires and other impacts
neil bulger
There were two gas forecast scenarios presented which would be used in either the source or TDV metric, is there an opinion from G&B or Sierra Club on the better of these two for the industry?
Nick Young
on pushing *imagined future* RNG
Sean Armstrong
Let’s use RNG in on-site, small power plants and not pretend there’s a way to deal with the 80+% of Fossil gas still in the pipelines to buildings.
Tom Kabat
Last night at a council meeting on Reach codes, council did not want to require electrification in additions remodels because there was zero gas connection $ savings to make electrification cost effective. So we have an analysis gap.
Alice Sung
Great proposition Tom Kabat re CE needed to consider new buildings/ additions to buildings or campuses (?) with existing gas infrastructure. This is the case for many school campuses that have additions of classroom wings, or one new building on a mixed fuel campus.
Alice Sung
wHAT HAS BEEN THE BARRIER TO cec Considering commercial?