Does increasing the dam capacity, years after initial construction, reduce the FoS
Christian Sauer (Hannover Re)
What is the average failure rate all all tailing dams ? 1:1000 years ?
you perfectly illustrated the fact that geological recognition (karstification...) was crucial because it allowed the infrastructure to be properly sized. However, too many mining companies are unable to have this vision, sometimes for excellent reasons (in mergers and acquisitions, information is lost, for example). Assessing risk and financial stakes for insurers is therefore made impossible in many cases. The use of geophysics and drilling often raises many doubts. However, mining companies make very little use of it. Why?
Determining probability of failure for investigation, design, construction, and O&M components is key in determining the aggregated probability of failure for the tailings management system (TMS). How were these probabilities of failure determined?
How was the model backtested against actual failures and what type of correlation to probability failure/year was observed?
How much is the influence of site investigation in the risk assessment of dams? what is the weight of the site investigation as a KPI?
Just wondering about the deliberations of the choice of using "KPI" over "KRI"?
do you foresee in the future an increase or decrease of probability of failure of TSFs, an increase/decrease of conséquences of Failure of TSFs or both?
Coul you explain a litle bit more about the Failure Modes as a desing tool?
So glad to see the societal consequences included in a meaningful manner!
Do you consider some type of MonteCarlo assessment / probabilistic analysis should be done on determining the FoS on the TSFs? And if yes should it be requested by the regulators? Is this a real way of considering geomechanical uncertainties?
Dr Kym Morton
Very important to measure and control water pressure- it is the only factor available , once a dam is established, that can be reduced and stability increased
It is acknowleged that factor of safety does not address geotechnical uncertainty. Should it?
In your opinion, do most mining companies with TSF's use your quantitative and qualitative analysis methodology to better understand the probability of failure?
Thanks for this good presentation
will a copy of the presentation be available after the presentation
Will engineers such as KP/SRK/BGC etc use your modelling in their reports?
Thank you very much. A great presentation and very interesting.
Thank you so much! Such an informative session
Many thanks. When is next session? ;)
Yes, when is the next session? :)
Thank you very much! Great presentation!:)
Very many thanks
Thanks Franco / James
thanks very helpful
tahnk you Franco
Thanks a lot!