Science Update: Tropical Climatology and Hurricane Hazards - The Seasonality and Geography of Tropical Systems in the Atlantic Basin and an Early Hurricane Season Outlook, 5/13/2020
- Shared screen with speaker view

01:03:36
Hello from Las Vegas, NV

01:03:40
Hello from Quincy Massachusetts!

01:04:06
Hi from coastal NC!

01:04:25
New york

01:05:31
Welcome everyone to NSTA web seminars - Science Update!

01:05:47
Hi, from northern Virginia, outside DC

01:05:53
Thanks Flavio!

01:06:02
Hello from Memphis, TN

01:06:22
yes!

01:06:23
yes

01:06:26
yes

01:06:28
Yes

01:06:30
yes

01:06:31
yes

01:06:33
Not in Utah

01:06:37
yes - several

01:06:37
Absolutely, I live in florida

01:06:40
YES!!!

01:06:45
Yes

01:06:47
Yes, used to live in Wilmington, NC - lots of hurricanes

01:06:52
yes

01:06:58
more cat 5?

01:06:58
Not here in California

01:06:59
Yes, I live on the coast of NC.

01:07:02
yes...my wedding was weekend of hurricane sandy

01:07:03
Yes, a couple in MD

01:07:05
Yes, NC

01:07:08
Yes. Terrible winds and rain. So terrible, dangerous and damaging.

01:07:14
Wildfires and earthquakes in CA, but no hurricanes. :)

01:07:16
Caribbean region

01:07:18
Ivan. I live in South Alabama

01:07:18
Yes, Hurricane Andrew

01:07:36
Gloria in CT

01:07:36
Hurricane Irma and Michael

01:07:36
Hurricane Irene in VT

01:07:38
We get them up North too! Sometimes they creep up the bay and hit DC...

01:07:38
Alicia

01:07:39
Saw Harvey come through Texas. I left Houston but it was a Cat 1 where I was.

01:07:49
New England...

01:07:51
Used to live in FL Gulf Coast also lived through Andrew and a few others.

01:07:53
I grew up in Wilmington, NC and now in FL. Lived through many.

01:07:53
Also a microburst in my back yard!

01:07:57
I was in Newport RI in 1985

01:08:00
Thank you for participating in the poll

01:08:00
Lots in Eastern NC

01:08:02
Nola Katrina

01:08:04
Typhoon Yolanda

01:08:05
Two hurricanes personally - one in the Pacific (Baja). 2nd in the Yucatan

01:08:05
Wrightsville Beach - Hurricane Florence went right over my house

01:08:07
Remember Gloria and Bob?

01:08:07
Back to back at the University of Miami in 2005 - Katrina & Wilma

01:08:15
I remember Gloria

01:08:15
As a chuild in New England, but then the after effects of Charley and Irma in FL. Joyce

01:08:17
I live in STL and said yes b/c we often get a lot of rainfall if a hurricane lands in Louisiana or Mississippi. I think it was Irene that affected the migration pattern of monarch butterflies a few years back.

01:08:29
Also went through Irene in Annapolis.

01:08:39
WOW - lots of experiences and stories. Thank you for sharing

01:08:41
good topic

01:08:48
Hurricane Camille in 69

01:09:01
many growing up on Long Island in 1950s and 1960s!!!!

01:10:07
As a reminder, we ask that you please keep your video cameras off - thanks!

01:10:11
Project Atmosphere in KC is one of the best weather teacher training experiences that you can get. I highly recommend it!!

01:10:18
Many growing up in New England in the 1960's and 1970's

01:11:01
Will we have access to the slides after the presentations? Lots of great info in them!

01:11:30
Slides are here: https://learningcenter.nsta.org/mylibrary/collection.aspx?id=og/61eN9cfs_E

01:11:42
Thank you! :-)

01:13:14
Why is there no southern lobe near South America

01:15:34
@scott Diamond, the main reason is that their isn’t a warm ocean water pool to serve as the fuel.

01:16:46
You are listening to Chad Kauffman, CAL U Professor

01:19:10
Chad Kauffman on twitter, @TripleVortex ?

01:20:00
Slides can be found here: https://learningcenter.nsta.org/mylibrary/collection.aspx?id=og/61eN9cfs_E

01:20:21
Yes, that is Dr. Kauffman’s Twitter handle.

01:21:35
Season runs June - November

01:21:55
Aug-Sep-Oct is the peak

01:26:20
Hurricane Irma satellite image

01:28:21
Slides are here: https://learningcenter.nsta.org/mylibrary/collection.aspx?id=og/61eN9cfs_E

01:29:34
Why are other large storms, cold or hot, being named?

01:29:40
if they make it through all the letters of the alphabet they just start over correct?

01:30:11
Alpha, Beta.... That's what happened Katrina season!

01:30:29
so many great simulations on flash. what will happen when flash is unsupported?

01:30:44
If you love all things weather, you can connect to the American Meteorological Community, and the AMS Education Community via two different social media handles. A slide later in this talk has the Education handles IG/Twitter/FB/Pinterest.

01:31:15
Why isn't there a hurricane storm pattern toward South America? Too much land mass?

01:32:09
Regarding the naming of storms, it is the TV media private companies that decided to name winter storms. They did so for promotion/social media tracking. NOAA and the NWS do not name winter storms.

01:32:44
Do you know why they started naming the winter storms?

01:32:57
some of the Hurricanes in the Gulf result in tornadoes in Oklahoma

01:33:59
Living in Clearwater, Florida,

01:34:08
Ashley, Wendy commented on that in the Chat just before your question.

01:34:37
I see it, thanks Don

01:34:57
Many educational weather animations were developed in the 1990s when Flash was THE way to create them. This was done through early online multimedia training that was done by the COMET program and the modules they made/make for the meted.ucar.edu website. The site is open to all to use and is used heavily by the education community (especially higher ed). Unfortunately, as often happens, there was funding to create the initial training (aka Flash), but there has been much less money available to update past work to update the Flash resources.

01:36:20
Living in Clearwater, Florida, When teaching about severe weather, many of my students know more hurricanes than I do. They live in evacuation zones. Do evacuation zones change periodically?

01:38:08
Thank you Wendy- so sad for teachers and our students to not have flash after this year!

01:38:17
Great question Teresa. I imagine that emergency managers are very hesitant to change evacuation zones to avoid confusion, but they may change them if new information comes to light. The best practice would be to review ones evacuation zone on an annual basis prior to the start of the Hurricane Season as a part of preparing for the season, refreshing your survival and evacuation kits.

01:38:18
Why does the back side of the hurricane wall cause the most damage and have the strongest wind?

01:39:28
I’m not sure how to answer your question because it can be “unclear” what one considers "

01:40:35
“the back side”. It is usually the front forward quadrant that has the strongest winds because the storm winds are added to the translational winds of the system. There are many other hazards too (Chad will cover later). So what people experience as “bad” can vary over time and space with each landfalling storm.

01:41:04
Thank you-

01:42:30
with the Storm Surge Unit, are they including damage as from "the" hurricane? Friends in Florida could not collect insurance because the destruction of their restaurant was due to storm surge several years ago. I'm asking if the insurance coverage is changing now that the science is more informed?

01:42:45
Technology has helped with the accuracy of forecasting of hurricanes

01:42:51
I'm just curious, why can't meteorologists accurately forecast the weather a month in advance?

01:43:51
The very short answer is “chaos theory” aka the butterfly effect. The system is quite chaotic and we don’t have enough global measurements to fully capture the beginning state and things evolve from “there”.

01:45:21
The weather services often show numerous prediction patchs for hurricanes. Some of them are quite different from each other. Can you talk a little about what drives the different forcast?

01:46:24
Different numerical models are used that have different mathematical configurations, parameterizations, and assumptions are used. This helps capture the uncertainties and the unknowns associated with an imperfect capture of the initial conditions.

01:48:43
Are there apps that help people understand if they are in danger of storm surge?

01:49:40
@Susan - standard insurance does not cover damage due to storm surge or flooding. Property owners have to buy a separate Flood insurance policy. Flood damage is water damage from the ground up, storm/hurricane policies cover water damage from "above" (i.e, a tree through a roof allowing water to run into the house).

01:50:30
has global warming or polar warming caused an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity?

01:51:10
With ocean temps rising, are we seeing (or expect to see) more systems occurring outside of the typical 5-20 degree latitude range?

01:51:15
Not living in a coastal zone, I’m not as up on this as I should be. For all expertise on Storm Surge forecasts I strongly recommend the NHC website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/ It mentions an interactive map viewer and the ability to download data. I’d start there. I also suggest one uses 3rd party apps for life threatening conditions with caution!

01:53:00
Great question Samatha. Meteorologists are monitoring change in hurricane climatology closely. It is certainly possible it will change. There is already some indication that warmer oceans have created tropical system that have impacted NE S. America in the modern era which had never previously been observed. A warmer ocean is the likely cause.

01:53:06
thanks Wendy. I'm not costal either but was curious

01:53:25
@Adam - maps showing flood prone areas in your area may be available through your Library, city or county, or Emergency Management Office. When phone books were published the storm surge maps were actually in the front with the maps and local information

01:53:30
Slides are here: https://learningcenter.nsta.org/mylibrary/collection.aspx?id=og/61eN9cfs_E

01:54:28
yes

01:55:13
NHC has a map you can print....if your in New England you can watch any news clip first part of class and they always do a Tracking the Tropics segment and your students could plot hurricane tracks for sept and October easily

01:55:14
Thanks for the links!

01:55:17
kids love it

01:55:40
Thank you for the links

01:55:55
wow that is great

01:56:01
thank you so much, I am interested in the AMS program

01:56:04
The resources will help in adjusting my lessons

01:56:09
link ?

01:56:13
👏🏽👏🏽

01:56:18
Slides are here: https://learningcenter.nsta.org/mylibrary/collection.aspx?id=og/61eN9cfs_E

01:56:37
Thank you so much for the links to all the resources! :-)

01:57:20
Thanks for all the information.

01:57:22
Thank You!

01:57:54
Thank you so much

01:57:57
Are the courses online, in person, in the field or a combo of the above?

01:58:13
Its comprehensive. I need to really break it down for my elementary students

01:58:15
Thank you. Great information

01:58:20
Thank you Chad and Wendy!

01:58:35
can you just sign up for the online courses or do you only select a small group

01:58:38
Great to see some of our alumni in here. Thanks for participating!

01:58:45
can someone see my earlier question ?

01:58:47
Is it possible for two tropical depression to combine?

01:59:01
This was great Chad and Wendy!

01:59:03
There is so much information on climate change and the effects on weather, will AMS be offering a course on this?

01:59:21
Chad...I was a participant in five courses, except Climate Change!

01:59:45
thank you Chad

01:59:45
how would you leverage Sharknado to teach ocean and atmospheric science?

01:59:52
What is the process for tornado spin-offs from hurricanes? Is it atmospheric instability?

02:00:13
Someone replied to my question about storm surge and insurance coverage. If a Storm Surge Unit was established and we know now how hurricanes cause this, can't the differentiation be applied to insurance? Do you have to have hurricane & storm surge/flood insurance?

02:00:27
I'm from Australia, so would I still have access to completing the online courses?

02:01:04
Thank you Chad. This was a great review for me as it has been a long time since I taught a weather unit (which I greatly enjoyed). You also shared information that was new to me.

02:01:11
Wow, I guess I was really lucky to have two data streme courses free, paid for by a grant for my school district!!! The wealth of science in the courses is amazing. I feel SO much smarter!

02:01:12
How long will the resources be available?

02:01:18
Are the courses open to non US citizens who are teaching in the US?

02:01:34
I am from nyc- is there a cost to the courses?

02:02:01
has global warming or polar warming caused an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity?

02:02:14
Will the chat be available for review after this webinar?

02:02:20
All of the resources have been excellent, I am also from Australia as professionals in the field what do you believe is the hardest concept about storm data that is hard for students to grasp?

02:02:21
Thanks-

02:02:48
Pertaining to the question on resources a@7:57pm, specifically if one has a temporary membership.

02:02:52
Yes - the chat is part of the recording

02:03:41
Can informal educators participate? online and field courses?

02:03:56
You can save the Chat. Click on the 3 dots to the right of the Chat window. You can save Chat to your computer.

02:03:58
@Susan - I'm not sure how the science would apply to the insurance. For insurance coverage - I have to have a homeowners policy to cover the standard hazards, plus a wind/hail coverage that covers storm damage and a flood insurance policy to cover storm surge or canals overflowing.

02:04:18
To review, was there data on the latitude lines for % of hurricanes?

02:04:22
Thank you! Very informative.

02:04:24
Great talk!

02:04:32
Thank you😊😊😊

02:04:34
Thanks again.

02:04:35
Great information. Thank you!

02:04:35
Thank you!

02:04:39
Thank you!

02:04:40
Thank you all!!

02:04:40
Thank you!! Great information!

02:04:45
very interesting. Thank you!

02:04:47
thank you

02:04:48
Thank you! Very informative!

02:04:48
thank you

02:04:48
Thankyou Chad and Wendy

02:04:49
Very informative! Thank you!

02:04:49
Virtual clapping Bravo

02:04:50
Thank you!! :-)

02:04:50
thank you 🙏🏽

02:04:50
thank you

02:04:51
thank u

02:04:51
Thank you!

02:04:52
Thank you Chad and Wendy!

02:04:53
Thank you Chad and Wendy!

02:04:54
Thank you! amazing webinar!

02:04:55
Thank you Chad and Wendy, very informative :)

02:04:55
Thank you!!!!

02:04:56
Thank you!

02:04:57
Great materials thank you all.

02:04:59
Thank you, very informative!

02:04:59
Thank you

02:04:59
thank you

02:05:03
thank you!

02:05:04
great.. thank you

02:05:05
Thank you, excellent presentation.

02:05:05
THANK YOU SO MUCH!

02:05:06
Thank You!

02:05:07
Continuing Education Credit (CEC) ?

02:05:07
thanks you very usefull information

02:05:07
Thank you all so much always a learner surrounded by great teachers

02:05:11
Thank you Sir Chad and Mam Wendy.. Great talk👍👍👍.

02:05:13
Very informative, thanks so much.

02:05:14
Thanks!

02:05:15
Does AMS offer any West Coast courses?

02:05:19
Flavio, great hosting also. Thank you!

02:05:19
did I miss the link?

02:05:23
great talk

02:05:29
Thank you. Very informative.

02:05:33
Not CEU’s. 3 graduate credits per course.

02:05:41
thank u

02:05:43
Collection

02:05:44
https://learningcenter.nsta.org/mylibrary/collection.aspx?id=og/61eN9cfs_E

02:05:58
PS- I was totally serious about Sharknado- my students are obsessed! How do I take advantage of that to teach real science?

02:05:59
Thank you Web seminar Team

02:06:11
This was an amazing webinar. Thank You So Much!

02:06:19
Did I miss the survey link?