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EVOP - Shared screen with speaker view
Jesse Kreger (he/him/his)
Thank you for joining our session! We encourage you to post your questions for the speakers in the chat, or raise your hand to ask a question live.
Richard Bingham
Given that the ICC curves for AZ were fitted as three separate curves, doesn't that limit the predictive power? It seems like these transition points are the points when predictions would be more helpful. Did you pick the number of curves by hand? Nicetalk btw
Richard Bingham
Taylor Kessinger
Nice talk. I have the impression that within-host influenza genealogies look Kingman-esque but between-host genealogies look more Bolthausen-Sznitman-esque--is this right? The asynchrony you identify seems like a ready explanation.
Chris Remien
Enjoyed your talk! Given that the influenza season was virtually nonexistent this past year, any guesses on the implications for influenza evolution?
Jeffrey West
nice talk!
Dylan H. Morris
To Chris Remien’s question for me: I wonder a lot about the crushed flu season and antigenic evolution (and overall incidence as well). Hard to be confident!
Dylan H. Morris
One thing I’ve been pondering: our analysis implies that mucosal antibodies are important for protection. The conventional wisdom is that influenza reinfects principally through antigenic evolution while seasonal coronaviruses reinfect principally through immune waning. That might be backwards! Because flu is fast within host, if you don’t get it at the start (which requires high antibody levels) you’ll struggle to prevent symptomatic disease. With SARS-CoV-2, we’ve seen that vaccines are very protective against symptoms despite not inducing many mucosal antibodies. This makes sense given the slower within-host replication of coronaviruses; they can’t “outrun” the recall response the way flu does in our models.
Dylan H. Morris
Waning is prevented by boosting—challenge with the virus or a vaccine. That means that for flu, a missed year of circulation could matter for overall population susceptibility. Suggests that flu vaccination this fall might be especially important, since fewer people will have received a natural boost. So in the absence of antigenic novelty might not be *necessary* for a big flu season, and population level selection pressure for novelty could be on the weaker side.
Dylan H. Morris
^ oops, typo; strike “in the absence of” above
Chris Remien
Very interesting—thanks!
Brydon Eastman
Interesting talk Ali, thanks!